Breaking Down the NCAA Tourney: South Region (By Anthony Gentile)

Overview: Never has the weight of an entire regional – and tournament – rested entirely on one toe. The troublesome toe in question is that of North Carolina point guard Ty Lawson. If Lawson is healthy, North Carolina is the favorite to win the tournament. If not, the Tar Heels might not escape the South, which includes Oklahoma, Syracuse and Gonzaga.

Spoiler: Gonzaga rolled to an unbeaten WCC campaign and won their two conference tournament games by a startling 30-point average. The Zags have top-10 talent, and a balance of inside-outside scoring with the likes of Jeremy Pargo, Matt Bouldin, Austin Daye and Josh Heytvelt. Gonzaga can run but also plays air tight defense, allowing an average of only 61.3 points per game. And motivation won’t be an issue – the Bulldogs should have last year’s first round exit fresh in their minds.

Under the Radar: Arizona State struggled towards the end of Pac-10 play and the Sundevils received a six-seed despite being ranked 19th in the nation. The Sundevils have a great inside-outside combo in James Harden (20.8 ppg) and Jeff Pendergraph (14.5 ppg, 8.4 rpg). If Arizona State can share the ball, they have the potential to advance through the lower part of the South bracket over both Syracuse and Oklahoma, who both have questions entering the tournament.

Upset City: Illinois enters the tournament with an ailing point guard. To make matters worse, the Fighting Illini received the dreaded five-seed in the South. What could be worse than that? Facing off against Western Kentucky in the first round. Those factors could spell upset for the Hilltoppers, a surprise sweet 16 team from a year ago. Western Kentucky has the upset pedigree and has four players average in double figures, led by A.J. Slaughter’s 15.8 per game.

Pick: Although it could go one of four or five ways, North Carolina should get back to the Final Four for the second year in a row, especially if Lawson is healthy. If not, things will be tougher for the Tar Heels, and the Zags could zig their way to Detroit.